Fact
The Dunning-Kruger effect is not quite what you think
The most-shared psychology finding on the internet may be partly a statistical mirage.
The popular version – that incompetent people believe they are experts – overstates it. The original data show everyone estimating themselves near average, so poor performers overestimate and strong performers underestimate. Critics have argued much of the pattern falls out of regression to the mean and would appear even in random data.